A new report released by the federal ministry of Natural Resources suggests that the cost to deploy adequate levels of electric vehicle charging infrastructure across the country in the next three decades will be around $20 billion.

The report, Canada’s public charging needs – Updated projections, updates the federal government’s understanding of Canada’s overall charging infrastructure needs and how these are likely to evolve as the national EV fleet continues to grow. It builds on data previous issued in 2018. Both reports were performed by Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors.

The new analysis concludes that, by 2030, Canada will need to have around 200,000 publicly accessible chargers, with a ratio of one charger for every 24 electric vehicles and with the chargers varying in charge-time. While the model assumes a 15-percent market share of new vehicle sales by 2025, additional scenarios also consider a 60-percent market share by 2030 and a 100-percent market share by 2035.

The analysis outlined four key findings, in addition to the projected $20-billion price tag:

• there is “a need for a significant acceleration in charging infrastructure deployment over the next five to ten years”;
• the “primary driver for the number of charging ports is capacity requirements within community clusters”;
• improving home charging access will help Canada achieve its EV adoption and infrastructure targets; and
• for households that do not have access to charging at home, “public charging infrastructure can potentially serve as a substitute”.

“The independent findings in this report are consistent with Canada’s targets for charging infrastructure — we are on the right track,” said Natural Resources Minister, Jonathan Wilkinson. “As we continue to make EVs more accessible and affordable for Canadians, the business case for private investment in publicly available charging infrastructure is becoming more apparent, and I look forward to seeing even more industry players installing chargers across the country.”

The federal government is in the midst of deploying charging infrastructure across the country, with the goal of supporting 84,500 new chargers across Canada by 2027. There are currently 16,640 publicly accessible EV chargers across Canada located across 6,987 charging sites.

This is complemented by $500 million that the Canada Infrastructure Bank will invest in large-scale ZEV charging and refuelling infrastructure that is revenue generating and in the public interest.

These new chargers are intended, in part, to catalyze private investment in this space. The federal government’s funding of these 84,500 chargers — along with a host of other measures to promote EV adoption — will help establish a business case for the private sector to fund the rest of the network and get Canada’s EV charging network to the scale outlined in the report, namely, 442,000–469,000 publicly available chargers by 2035.

The private sector has already begun to play a leadership role in building the balance of the necessary infrastructure. Private investments are already ramping up across the country with companies such as General Motors, Petro-Canada, Hydro-Québec, Flo and many more having developed charging infrastructure initiatives independent of government programs.

“Every day, there are more and more EVs on the road, thanks to the choice of Canadians to go electric,” said Innovation, Science and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne. “That’s why it is crucial to have adequate charging infrastructure to meet this increasing demand. This report highlights important opportunities for the private sector to leverage the foundation we’ve already built to further increase the number of chargers available.”

In time, the federal government anticipates a high enough demand for EV infrastructure in metropolitan centres and along high-volume corridors that these projects will become financially viable without the need for government support.

For the last two years, Natural Resources Canada has also been working with the National Research Council (NRC) to determine the best way to have the model building code encourage installing ZEV charging infrastructure in new buildings. As the national building codes are revised and updated every five years, NRCan continues to work with the NRC, provinces and territories, and the private sector to develop minimum requirements for the next building codes, which are expected to be released in 2025.

Transportation accounts for 25 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions in Canada.