A new report prepared for the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON) gives most municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe a failing grade when it comes to housing starts and sales.

The Q2 2025 GTA and GGH Housing Report Card, which was prepared by the University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative, gives failing marks to 22 of the 34 municipalities graded. Another five received Ds, while the other seven municipalities received grades of Cs or higher. Brantford had an A-plus and Milton an A.

The assessment was based on data obtained from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Altus Group. Researchers did a deep dive on housing starts, sales and industry employment across municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe region over the first six months of 2025, relative to the same time period in the previous four years (2021-25).

“The findings of this report are troubling and should set off the alarm bells for policymakers across all three levels of government,” explains RESCON president Richard Lyall. “Housing projects have been shelved and the industry has hit a wall. The outlook is bleak, and we are trending in the wrong direction. We need governments to take concrete action to lower the tax burden and modernize the process to kick-start the industry. Our economy will be in dire straits if we do not act quickly.”

The report found that in the first six months of this year, housing starts were down an average of 40 percent in the 34 municipalities. Condo apartment starts over the first six months were down 54 percent relative to 2021-24 while purpose-built rental starts were up eight percent. Starts for everything other than apartments were down 42 percent, showing the weakness is not just confined to condos.

In the City of Toronto, starts in the first six months of 2025 were down 58 percent while sales declined 91 percent compared to the same period between 2021-24, causing employment to fall by an estimated 10,209 jobs.

“Both the federal and provincial governments have committed to doubling housing starts,” says Mike Moffatt, an economist and founder of the Missing Middle Initiative. “Unfortunately, housing starts are falling, and new home sales show that further declines in starts are about to come. All three orders of government must act to address the housing crisis.”

The research comes at a particularly important time, as housing unit sales and starts have all but ground in parts of the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Pre-construction sales of condo apartments are down 89 percent and ground-oriented sales are down 70 percent. RESCON says these metrics are a clear indication that Ontario’s housing situation will get worse before it gets better, and that market weakness is not isolated to the condo market.

Industry employment has also taken a major hit. The reduction in housing starts in the municipalities over the first six months of the year, relative to 2021-24 averages, translates into 24,195 fewer person-years of employment.

“We are in the midst of the worst housing crisis in a generation,” adds Lyall. “While the situation is bad it could get worse if governments fail to reduce the tax burden on new housing.”

The full housing report card document is available on RESCON’s website.